India's strategic move on the Afghanistan chessboard.

On October 9th 2025, a flight coming from Kabul lands in New Delhi. Aboard the plane, is an internationally sanctioned terrorist, who just so happens to be the acting Foreign Minister of Afghanistan. Amir Khan Muttaqi had, according to reports, been summoned by the Supreme Leader of the Emirate, Hibatullah Akhundzada, to the Taliban's headquarters in Kandahar before his two-nation trip to Russia and India was to take place, indicating the significance of this engagement to the current Afghan regime.

The Panjshir Valley, 120km north of the capital, Kabul. (Image credits: Master Sgt. Michael O'Connor, US Air Force)

This two-nation visit, first to Russia for the Moscow format talks that took place between various Central Asian nations, with Russia at the helm, where important regional security matters were discussed, and then an 8-day state visit to India where he is expected to meet high-level officials of the Indian government, is shaping up to be one of the most crucial foreign visits since the Taliban took power in Afghanistan in 2021.

Afghanistan now looks for aid, trade, and most importantly of all, international legitimacy. Its flurry of diplomatic activity has yielded significant results, with Russia and China being the first two countries to grant official recognition to the current Afghan regime. An ideal scenario for the Taliban regime, would be the same recognition accorded to it by India, however, this seems highly unlikely in the near future.

However, New Delhi, ever since the fall of the Republic, has maintained a technical mission in Kabul despite reduced diplomatic presence after the chaotic withdrawal of coalition forces, delivering humanitarian aid, ensuring backchannel contacts with the current regime. This visit comes as a culmination of various secretary and ministerial-level talks between India and Afghanistan at neutral venues like Doha, and some even in New Delhi and Kabul as well.

India's strategic investments in Afghanistan amounted to over $3 billion before 2021, which included big-ticket projects such as the Afghan national parliament, as well as the Salma Dam, and many schools and hospitals in various regions. Therefore, India has strategic capital invested in Afghanistan, which it is looking to protect and possibly grow, through pragmatic diplomatic engagement with the current regime, stopping short of official recognition.

India hopes that the strategic capital invested in the country, along with warm people-to-people ties, largely through cricket, will form the strategic bedrock of a new, reinvigorated relationship with Afghanistan, which will help India to outmaneuver other regional powers like China, and more importantly Pakistan which are also trying to exert their influence in the region.

By facilitating direct diplomatic channels between India and Afghanistan, India hopes to undermine the influence and strategic importance of Pakistan in the region, indirectly mount pressure on the various groups operating in Afghanistan and Pakistan across the Durand Line to refrain from anti-India activity, and also open vital trade routes to Central Asia bypassing Pakistan, through the strategically valuable Chabahar Port in Iran, which is also said to be featured heavily in the India-Afghanistan discussions.

By opposing the presence of any foreign troops on Afghan soil, seen by many as referring to the recently stated ambition of the Trump administration to take back the strategically vital Bagram Air Base, 60km north of Kabul, India is enacting confidence-building measures in hopes to improve ties with the current regime, and possibly nudge the Taliban away from dependence on Pakistan in respects such as trade, security, and political sovereignty.

In the long-term, however, India needs to take its steps very carefully, as the Taliban as well as its offshoots in the form of the TTP operating in northwestern Pakistan, may pose security risks to India with their extremist and hardline ideologies. Factionalism within the Taliban itself, as well as regular provocations across the Durand Line are also matters of concern for India, which it would look to be wary of.

Currently, India is looking to maximise the advantage of the delicate, relative peace established in Afghanistan, to ensure its interests, both strategic and economic, are protected. However, this engagement cannot be seen as a long-term solution to the problem of regional instability, as this peace depends on too many variables to ensure sustainability.